Monday, June 8, 2009

Models’ Projections for Flu Miss Mark by Wide Margin

"In the waning days of April, as federal officials were declaring a public health emergency and the world seemed gripped by swine flu panic, two rival supercomputer teams made projections about the epidemic that were surprisingly similar — and surprisingly reassuring. By the end of May, they said, there would be only 2,000 to 2,500 cases in the United States.
May’s over. They were a bit off.
On May 15, the Centers for disease Control and prevention estimated that there were “upwards of 100,000” cases in the country, even though only 7,415 had been confirmed at that point."

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